Despite lingering worries about unemployment and continuing American casualties in Iraq in late 2003, President George W. Bush will be re-elected in the 2004 presidential election, a University of Alabama political scientist predicts.

"I expect that President Bush will defeat his Democratic opponent by a fairly sizable margin in the Electoral College, but by only a narrow margin in the popular vote," said Dr. David Lanoue, chair of UA's political science department. "If there is any surprise on the Republican side, it may be Vice President Cheney stepping down in favor of someone new on the ticket."

Lanoue said Howard Dean will probably be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, but some surprises could be in store. "The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary usually generate at least one or two surprises. In particular, look out for Richard Gephardt and Wesley Clark," he said.

"The major issues of the 2004 election will, not surprisingly, be the health of the economy and the ‘war on terror,' including, of course, the situation in Iraq. Other ‘wedge' issues like the Ten Commandments and gay marriage will be divisive and generate a great deal of heated debate, but they won't have any meaningful impact on most important election outcomes."

Lanoue predicts the 2004 Congressional races should go well for the Republicans. "They will almost certainly pick up seats in the Senate, probably between two and four, and they will likely win seats in the House as well. This will virtually assure the GOP of control of Congress for the remainder of the decade," he said.

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