For the 23rd consecutive year, UA's Office of Media Relations offers predictions from faculty experts for the coming year. While these "educated guesses" don't always come true, the record has been good over the past couple of decades.

Last year, for example, our faculty predicted that the war in Iraq would cause a drop in the stock market, television news channel viewership would rise dramatically and Alabama Gov. Riley's tax package would fail (Educated Guesses 2003).

So what's ahead for 2004? For one, a very close presidential race — so close that two UA faculty prognosticators disagree about the outcome. While political science professor David Lanoue predicts Bush will be triumphant, his colleague Donald Snow says that Bush will lose.

In other "educated guesses," look for Bush to fail with a plan to privatize Social Security; economic growth; a continued increase in sex and violence on network TV; a new "cocktail drug therapy" for Alzheimer's disease; more computer viruses and less spam; terrorists to take on e-commerce; and Roy Moore to "take his show on the road."

To reach faculty sources for additional comments, please use the contact information provided with each story. Please note that this contact information is for reporter's use only, not for publication.

Educated Guesses 2004

• Bush will Win Re-Election While Republicans Make Gains in Congress — Dr. David Lanoue predicts President Bush will be re-elected despite lingering worries about unemployment and American casualties in Iraq.
• Iraq to Cost Bush Re-Election, Barring Dramatic Changes — Dr. Donald Snow predicts the post-war situation in Iraq will gradually deteriorate and only dramatic developments will save the president from defeat.
• Roy Moore to "Take His Show on the Road" in 2004 — Bryan Fair predicts ousted Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore will seek test cases and support for a constitutional amendment.
• 2004 will be "The Year of the Internet Wars" as Congress and Terrorists Enter the Fray — Dr. Robert Robicheaux predicts "the year of the Internet wars" on two fronts.
• More Computer Viruses, Less SPAM Predicted for 2004 — UA computer science professors predict much more to come for computer viruses and SPAM.
• New Motor Trends Include Hybrid Electric Vehicles and More Diesel Engines — UA engineering professors predict hybrid electric vehicles will join the SUV upsurge.
• Alzheimer's "Cocktail Therapy" Expected in 2004 — Drs. Lou Burgio and Lucinda Roff predict the beginning of "cocktail drug therapy" for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.
• Pension Plans at Stake as Congress, Courts Consider Issues — Norman Stein predicts key legal and legislative decisions that will affect the future of American workers' pensions.
• Look for State Economy to Grow Next Year; Textiles and Apparel to Remain Gloomy — Dr. Carl Ferguson predicts growth for all industries except textiles and apparel.
• OPEC Threats will Drive Up Gas Prices — Dr. Peter Clark predicts a rise in gas prices due to a decrease in crude oil supply.
• Coming Years will Bring More World-Wide Pandemics — Dr. John Higginbotham predicts an increase in world-wide disease outbreaks due to increasing population densities and lack of access to health care.
• Sex and Violence on Network Television will Continue to Increase — Dr. Jennings Bryant predicts a continued trend toward more sex, vulgar language and violence.
• Preppy Fashion, Dresses will be Back in 2004; Men's Fashion Also in the Spotlight — Dr. Marcy Koontz predicts fashion trends for men and women.
• Look for Continued Strength in Housing Market, but Below the Pace of Past Three Years — Dr. Leonard Zumpano predicts a relatively strong housing market, but below the pace of the last three years.
• No Tax Reform for Alabama in 2004; Republicans to Sweep State — Dr. William Stewart predicts no new tax package like the one soundly defeated in 2003.