Proponents of tax cuts should be pleased as additional tax reductions, possibly including a radical shift toward a flat-tax-style income tax, will be proposed in coming months, predicts a University of Alabama professor of political science.

Dr. David Lanoue, professor and chairman of political science at UA, says the growing deficit will not stop President George W. Bush from proposing additional tax cuts. "At the very least, there will be a proposed reduction of certain taxes that aren't popular with the Republicans," Lanoue predicts. "Bush may, during the State of the Union address, come out with a more radical plan that may include some version of the flat tax."

While Republicans ended the year riding a wave of post-election momentum, the coming year will not be a ride on easy street, says the UA professor who last year accurately predicted both Bush's re-election and Republicans picking up seats in Congress.

"I think it will be an interesting year for the Republicans. They are going to face many of their own internal contradictions. The Religious Right thinks they gave Bush the victory — and they're not entirely wrong, although they are not as right as they think they are — and now they want some payback."

Part of that payback will come in a proposed U.S. Constitutional Amendment against gay marriages, Lanoue says. "It will fail, not quite as badly as last time, but it will fail," he predicts.

Look for some clashes between the evangelical Christian segment of the Party and those who identify primarily as fiscal conservatives, Lanoue says.

Expect the administration to offer a modified version of a Social Security privatization plan. It will be greeted with mixed reviews and will not be finalized or defeated in 2005. "It may be into 2006 or later before it gets legs," Lanoue says. As for Democrats, Lanoue says they will concentrate on getting their own house in order, particularly during the first six to eight months of 2005. "The national Democrats are going to lay low and wait to pick their fights," he says.

back to Educated Guesses 2005