For the 24th consecutive year, UA's Office of Media Relations offers a variety of predictions for the coming year from faculty experts. While these "educated guesses" don't always come true, the record over time has been good. Last year, for example, faculty members predicted an increase in gas prices, growing popularity of hybrid vehicles, George W. Bush's election win and Republican gains in the House and Senate.

What's ahead for 2005? Look for more school choice options for parents; a resurgence of American-made cars; tax cut proposals; an adjustment in the U.S.'s goals for Iraq; Supreme Court clarification on Ten Commandments displays; and developments in a technology that could, one day, make the stem-cell debate moot.

To reach faculty sources for additional comments, please use the contact information provided with each story.

Educated Guesses 2005

Look for Chilling Re-Regulation in the Media in 2005 — The Federal Communications Commission and Congress are likely to take steps to curtail press freedom in 2005, a University of Alabama communication expert predicts. "The FCC and Congress are incensed. The public is fed up. The 5-second delay is just the tip of the iceberg," says Dr. Jennings Bryant, holder of the Reagan Chair of Broadcasting and director of the Institute of Communication Research in UA's College of Communication and Information Sciences. "The media will take the heat from the fallout of Janet Jackson's breast-baring Super Bowl performance, Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s smut-mouthed post-NASCAR-race interview, Latrell Sprewell's sexually oriented vulgar outburst at a female heckler, and scores of other episodes. "It is highly likely that the pressures on 'prior restraint' of media will mount during 2005, leading to new regulations on press freedoms."

Contact: Dr. Jennings Bryant, jbryant@icr.ua.edu

National Iraqi Elections to be Postponed as U.S. Shifts Goals, UA International Expert Predicts — An election will be held in Iraq in late January, but continued violence in that country will prevent a broad-based national election in 2005, predicts a University of Alabama foreign policy expert. "I suspect we will postpone the election — at least the national election," says Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science at UA. "We'll hold something that looks like an election on Jan. 30, but it will not be the grand, national election that we've been advertising. "2005 is the year of 'Iraqification,'" says Snow. "We are going to turn the country over to the fledgling Iraqi police force even though, as in Vietnam, we know it will not work," says the UA political scientist.

Contact: Dr. Donald Snow, dsnow622@aol.com

Housing Market in 2005 Should be Good, but will Not Rival Predicted Record-Setting 2004 — A 2005 economy strong enough to keep housing prices firm, tempered by the potential impact of the growing federal deficit will combine for a good housing market, but not one as strong as 2004, predicts a real estate expert at The University of Alabama. "Look for a good, but not record setting, housing market next year," says Dr. Leonard Zumpano, director of the Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center at The University of Alabama. "Even if the housing market slows during the last two months of the year, 2004 will probably still set another record for existing home sales," Zumpano said. "A reasonably strong and expanding economy along with rising employment will work to keep housing prices firm in the New Year," he said.

Contact: Dr. Leonard Zumpano, Lzumpano@cba.ua.edu

Flu Epidemic a Possibility for 2005 — Every year brings the possibility of the next flu epidemic, or even pandemic, regardless of whether or not a flu vaccine is available, according to a University of Alabama epidemiologist. "Given the global connectivity that exists because of world travel and a high population density, the potential is always there for a flu pandemic and, sometimes, I feel we may be due for one," says Dr. John C. Higginbotham, associate dean for research and health policy in UA's College of Community Health Sciences. "But we cannot say whether that will happen this year or in 10 years."A pandemic is an increase in disease over a large geographic area above what would normally be expected.

Contact: Dr. John Higginbotham, jhiggin@cchs.ua.edu

Bush May Propose Flat Tax in '05 — Proponents of tax cuts should be pleased as additional tax reductions, possibly including a radical shift toward a flat-tax-style income tax, will be proposed in coming months, predicts a University of Alabama professor of political science. Dr. David Lanoue, professor and chairman of political science at UA, says the growing deficit will not stop President George W. Bush from proposing additional tax cuts. "At the very least, there will be a proposed reduction of certain taxes that aren't popular with the Republicans," Lanoue predicts. "Bush may, during the State of the Union address, come out with a more radical plan that may include some version of the flat tax." While Republicans ended the year riding a wave of post-election momentum, the coming year will not be a ride on easy street, says the UA professor who last year accurately predicted both Bush's re-election and Republicans picking up seats in Congress.

Contact: Dr. David Lanoue, dlanoue@bama.ua.edu or dlanoue@hotmail.com

More States to Fund Stem Cell Research — Nearly a half-dozen states will follow California's lead and promote stem-cell research in 2005, while a new technology that could eventually make the entire debate moot will continue developing in the months ahead, predicts a University of Alabama biologist. "Ultimately, maybe a dozen states or more will end up with laws promoting stem cell research, but probably less than half of those will do so during 2005," says Dr. Kim Caldwell, assistant professor of biological sciences at UA. Eggs can now be chemically stimulated in the laboratory to begin developing as if they have been fertilized. This procedure, known as parthenogenesis, has the potential to create embryonic stem cells without ever creating an embryo. "I think there will be more work on parthenogenesis in the next year," Caldwell predicts.

Contact: Dr. Kim Caldwell, kcaldwel@bama.ua.edu

Cable Companies to More Aggressively Pursue On-line Gaming, Digital Video Recording — Access, convenience, and demand for quality will impact Americans' entertainment choices in 2005. Dr. Loy Singleton, professor and chair in The University of Alabama's Telecommunication and Film Department, says to look for the following developments:

TV programming — The reality-TV show craze is expected to cool down further.

High-definition TVs — Retail sales of large, high definition flat-panel plasma and LCD TV screens will continue to accelerate.

Internet access — Consumer wireless access to the World Wide Web will continue expanding.

Online gaming — More cable systems will offer interactive online gaming in an effort to get a piece of the action in 2005.

Contact: Loy Singleton, loy.singleton@ua.edu

World Demand and OPEC's Cuts Mean High Gas Prices for 2005 — The price of oil in 2005 will be volatile, says a University of Alabama engineering professor. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC, recently announced a one-million barrel a day cutback in production, which, if enforced, should keep the price above the old target price of about $25 a barrel, according to Dr. Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical and biological engineering at UA. OPEC has also announced its intention to increase the target price. World demand is also growing, so there will be increased competition for existing oil supplies. "This means that gasoline prices should remain high. There will not be a return to prices around $1 per gallon in 2005," predicted Clark. The price of natural gas will also remain high. "Consumers should expect to pay more for heating this winter," said Clark.

Contact: Dr. Peter Clark, pclark@coe.eng.ua.edu

Bush Nominates First Supreme Court Justice in 2005; Court to Address Ten Commandments Issues — President George W. Bush will have his first opportunity to nominate a Supreme Court justice in the coming year, and that nominee will be an individual who "lives conservative values," a University of Alabama law professor says. Constitutional law expert Bryan Fair expects Chief Justice William Rehnquist to be the first justice to retire, with Justices Sandra Day O'Connor and John Paul Stevens likely to follow soon after. "The potential resignations and new appointments will overshadow most Supreme Court decisions this term, but changes to the Court may shift the balance of power among the justices for decades to come," Fair said. "I suspect that former U.S. Solicitor General Ted Olson tops the president's list of potential nominees," Fair said.

Contact: Bryan Fair, bfair@law.ua.edu

School Choice and Teacher Shortages Impact Education in 2005 — In the coming year, K-12 education will see more parents able to choose the schools their children attend and increases in teacher and administrator shortages, a University of Alabama education expert predicts. The changes will be driven by the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 (NCLB), says Dr. James McLean, dean of the UA College of Education. NCLB mandates that parents of children enrolled in schools where adequate yearly progress is not made for two years must be notified and have the option of moving their children to different schools, with the school system providing transportation. "This provision of NCLB is expected to impact thousands of schools nationwide in the next year. Parents whose children attend underperforming schools will have new choices," said McLean.

Contact: Dr. James McLean, jmclean@bamaed.ua.edu

Alabama Voters to Remove Racist Language from Constitution — Alabama voters will get a second chance to remove racist language from the state's constitution in 2005, and the revised version will be "overwhelmingly approved" during a special referendum, predicts Dr. William Stewart, professor emeritus of political science at The University of Alabama. During November, voters narrowly defeated Amendment Two — which would have removed the racist language — after concerns arose that added wording referencing a right to public education could lead to a future tax increase without voter approval. "Revived 'Amendment Two' legislation will be introduced promptly once the 2005 regular legislative session convenes," Stewart predicts. "I predict, however, that ultimately a 'cleaned up' version of this amendment will be approved by the assembly and put before the voters in a special referendum some time in 2005.

Contact: Dr. William Stewart, 205/556-3043, wm300@bellsouth.net

Resurgence of the American-Made Car Expected, Hybrid Sales to Go Up and SUV Sales to Go Down — Sales of "American-made" cars, many of which are manufactured in the United States by foreign car companies, will be strong in 2005, as will demand for hybrid vehicles, but SUV sales may decline, according to a University of Alabama expert on the automotive industry. "'American-made' car sales are booming, like Hondas made in Alabama, Nissan Titans and Armadas made in Mississippi, Camrys made in Kentucky, and Hyundais soon to be made in Alabama. There will continue to be a trend of foreign car manufacturers moving production facilities to the U.S.," said Dr. Clark Midkiff, associate professor of mechanical engineering and director of the Center for Advanced Vehicle Technologies at UA. "While many of the Big Three's automotive products continue to improve, I believe dramatically higher fuel costs will hurt the Big Three products because they make much of their profit from SUVs, and I think SUV sales growth will slow or decline because of fuel costs worries," Midkiff said.

Contact: Dr. Clark Midkiff, cmidkiff@coe.eng.ua.edu

Alabama Economy Expected to Grow by 3.3 Percent in 2005, Matching Projected U.S. Growth Rate — More jobs will be created in Alabama in 2005 in non-agricultural employment, but the textile and apparel industries will once again take it on the chin, University of Alabama economic experts predict. The Alabama economy will grow by 3.3 percent next year, matching the expected national growth rate but below the state's 2004 growth rate of 3.7 percent, says Ahmad Ijaz, econometric analyst in UA's Center for Business and Economic Research. The U.S. economy grew by approximately 4 percent in 2004 and is estimated to grow by 3.3 percent in 2005.

Contact: Ahmad Ijaz, aijaz@cba.ua.edu

Look for 2005 to be a Busy Year for Tax Legislation — A University of Alabama accounting professor said there are at least four areas of U.S. tax code that need attention and are likely to be considered next year when tax reform takes center stage. "Among the items that I think Congress will at least consider in 2005 is the alternative minimum tax," said Dr. William Samson, accounting professor at UA's Culverhouse College of Commerce. "That certainly needs to be modified because it is now starting to affect many taxpayers that it wasn't intended to hit," Samson said. He said Congress may also work on the Social Security problem. "Overall, I'd say the likelihood of Congress doing something about the Social Security problem next year remains small, because reform could be painful to some citizens and there could be a political backlash," Samson said.

Contact: Dr. William Samson, wsamson@cba.ua.edu

Convenience is Key for Food in 2005 — The most popular food trends for the upcoming year will be convenience (heat-and-eat) meals, fresh and healthy foods, and larger nutrition bars that serve as meal replacement items, predicts Dr. Ralph Lane, University of Alabama professor of human nutrition. "Individually packaged ready-to-eat foods that require no utensils will lead the list of 'most wanted' food attributes by consumers, even ahead of nutrition and health," Lane says.

Contact: Dr. Ralph Lane, rlane@ches.ua.edu

Hispanic Population in Alabama to Continue Growing — While Alabama is not a premier destination state for Hispanic migrants, the state's Hispanic population will continue to grow throughout the decade, according to Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at The University of Alabama. Watters said we can expect the growth in the Hispanic population to continue to be uneven across the state. While Hispanics make up about 2 percent of the total Alabama population, in 43 of Alabama's 67 counties Hispanics represent 1 percent or less of the total. In the counties with the highest concentrations, Hispanics represent between 4 and 8 percent of the total population.

Contact: Annette Watters, awatters@cba.ua.edu