With this year’s predictions from faculty experts, The University of Alabama’s Office of Media Relations marks the 25th edition of “Educated Guesses.” In the first edition – looking ahead to 1982 – our faculty experts predicted that the Moral Majority would lose influence, feminists would continue to push for passage of the Equal Rights Amendment and fashions would be influenced by Princess Diana.

While our faculty predictions don’t always come true, our track record over the years has been good. Last year, for example, our experts predicted high gas prices, economic growth and President Bush’s first opportunity to nominate a Supreme Court justice.

So, what’s ahead for 2006? Look for Gov. Bob Riley to be re-elected, gas prices hovering around $2 a gallon, a decrease in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, more major hurricanes, more entertainment and less journalism in the news media, and more.

To reach faculty sources for additional comments, please use the contact information provided with each story.

Educated Guesses 2006

Riley to Be Re-Elected as Alabama Governor – Gov. Bob Riley will face Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley in the Alabama governor’s race and Riley will win, projects Dr. David Lanoue, chair of The University of Alabama political science department. Lanoue predicts Riley will defeat Baxley by a margin of five to 10 percentage points. “General satisfaction with the state of affairs in Alabama will propel Gov. Riley to a relatively easy November re-election,” he says. “Although strong African-American support for the Democratic nominee will prevent the race from being a total blowout, Riley should coast to victory.” Lanoue also predicts that George Wallace Jr., son of former governors George and Lurleen Wallace, will be elected lieutenant governor.

Contact: Dr. David Lanoue, dlanoue@hotmail.com

Look for State's Economy to Grow a Bit Next Year, With an Inflation Rate Near 2.6 Percent – The coming year looks to be a good one for the state’s economy, according to analysts at the Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama. “We think the Alabama gross state product will rise 3.2 percent in 2006 after growing 3.4 percent in 2005,” said Ahmad Ijaz, an economic analyst at the Center. If there is an upside to hurricane-heavy 2005, it’s that an expected cutback in consumer spending will be offset by strong growth in capital spending, including hurricane-related construction activities. As long term interest rates continue to climb, housing markets will slow in 2006, with sales of both existing and new homes declining from their 2005 levels.

Contacts: Ahmad Ijaz, aijaz@cba.ua.edu or Sam Addy, saddy@cba.ua.edu

2006 to Be Heavy on Hurricanes, Light on Snow – Next year’s hurricane season is unlikely to bring much reprieve for coastal residents hammered by the storms in record fashion in 2005, predicts a University of Alabama geography professor. “We should expect major hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast,” says Dr. David Shankman, a professor of geography who regularly teaches a climatology class at UA. Other than hurricanes, do not expect much extreme weather in 2006, Shankman says. The lack of El Nino or La Nina effects – associated with atypical ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – reduces the likelihood of unusual weather patterns.

Contact: Dr. David Shankman, shankman@bama.ua.edu.

Gas Prices to Hover at $2 a Gallon -- The price of gasoline will fluctuate around the $2 a gallon mark through the early part of 2006, says a University of Alabama engineering professor. Prices will start to rise sometime in late winter or early spring, says Dr. Peter Clark, associate professor of chemical engineering. The price jump will occur as the refineries shut down for maintenance and switch over from producing more heating oil to producing more gasoline, Clark said. “Assuming no upsets in the world, gasoline prices should start to moderate by early summer, but gasoline prices will stay at or above $2 a gallon,” he forecasts.

Contact: Dr. Peter Clark, pclark@coe.eng.ua.edu

Number of Troops to Decrease in Iraq, Boosting Republicans in Elections -- The U.S. military will decrease the number of troops in Iraq by roughly a third in 2006, a University of Alabama foreign policy expert predicts. “Initially it will be in small increments, but large enough to create a political cover for the Republican Party in the 2006 elections,” says Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science. “I think there will be about 100,000 troops in Iraq this time next year.” Dr. David Lanoue, chair of the UA political science department agrees. “The Democrats, hampered by their inability to sound a common theme on Iraq, and also outfoxed by a well-publicized midyear withdrawal of several thousand troops from the country, will pick up seats in the midterm elections, but will not do nearly as well as they originally expected,” Lanoue says.

Contacts: Dr. Donald Snow, dsnow622@aol.com, and Dr. David Lanoue, dlanoue@hotmail.com

Supreme Court Will Be “Kennedy Court” – The U.S. Supreme Court could be dubbed the “Kennedy court” in 2006 as Justice Anthony Kennedy is likely to provide the deciding vote on most major cases, a University of Alabama constitutional law expert says. Although Chief Justice John Roberts will be in the spotlight as the court’s new leader, Kennedy will play the key role in the direction the court takes, according to UA Law Professor Bryan Fair. Fair predicts that nominee Samuel Alito will be confirmed early in the year, adding his conservative vote to the court. “Justice Kennedy will be the swing vote in many of the most controversial cases, including parental notification on abortion and other abortion issues that may come up and a wide variety of criminal, federal law and civil rights cases, not only in 2006 but in the next two or three years,” Fair predicted.

Contact: Bryan Fair, bfair@law.ua.edu

Store Brands Will Become More Popular, Baby Boomers to Fuel Surge in Installation Services – Look for increased use of store brands by retailers and more acceptance of same by consumers in 2006. “Companies have been upgrading the packaging of private labels, making them more attractive and authentic,” said Dr. Kristy Reynolds, associate professor of marketing and the Bruno Professor of Retail Marketing at The University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Commerce. Reynolds said consumers, particularly baby boomers, will be more likely to pay for installation and other services in the next year. “Retailers, catching on to this trend, are offering more of these services, which carry high profit margins,” she said. “Even supermarkets are offering entire meals that are already prepared.”

Contact: Dr. Kristy Reynolds, kreynold@cba.ua.edu

Innovations in Textiles Will Continue -- If you pick up a t-shirt, typically the label no longer reads “100% cotton.” It has become increasingly common to include fibers such as spandex to add stretch to the product. While we might be accustomed to seeing stretch in our garments, there are many other additions that are being developed in fiber blends, yarn technology, and fabric finishes that will be seen in 2006, predicts Amanda Thompson, an assistant professor of clothing and textiles at The University of Alabama. “While new technology materials, like mood fabrics that change with a person’s body heat or optical fiber halter tops that glow in the dark, are the new rage, companies will continue to make improvements in old favorites such as wrinkle resistant apparel that adds comfort and ease to consumers’ lives,” said Thompson.

Contact: Amanda Thompson, amanda.thompson@ua.edu

Technology, Entertainment to Steer Media – News media will focus more on entertainment through technologically advanced means of transmission in the near future, a University of Alabama communication expert predicts. Dr. Bill Keller, assistant to the dean for journalism administration, predicts “less journalistically disciplined” information from the media in coming months. “Changes in the next year or two will include cellular-transmitted information to iPods, as iPods become phones and phones become iPods and as television sets become computers and computers become television sets.”

Contact: Dr. Bill Keller, wbkeller@bama.ua.edu

Performance Enhancer Train Keeps Chugging Along -- Although 2005 saw major league sports step up efforts to crack down on performance enhancers like Anabolic Steroids, the cat is out of the bag, says Dr. Mike Perko, chair of The University of Alabama’s health science department. Designer steroids and products sold as “dietary supplements” will show up in larger numbers among world-class athletes, predicts Perko, who authored the book, “Taking one for the team: The new thinking on young athletes and dietary supplements.” “This single area will probably transform amateur and professional sports, as we know it. The first thing that will come to mind with every new record set will be ‘was it clean?’”

Contact: Dr. Mike Perko, mperko@ches.ua.edu

Look for Increased Internet Banking, Continued Upheaval in the Industry – Internet banking will continue to increase as more consumers do their personal banking online in the coming year, a University of Alabama banking expert says. “The boundaries between banks and other financial service providers will blur, and bricks and clicks will complement each other,” says Dr. Benton Gup, professor of finance and holder of the Robert Hunt Cochran/Alabama Bankers Chair at UA. Thus, banks will require less of a physical presence than they have now, and there is the possibility that the Internet and related technologies will bypass many banks.”

Contact: Dr. Benton Gup, bgup@cba.ua.edu

Katrina Will Make Proving Where You Live More Difficult in 2006 – Look for cities and counties in the Hurricane Katrina-affected areas to have trouble proving their true populations in the months ahead, predicts a University of Alabama census data analyst. Annual population estimates are relied upon by various governmental agencies in determining things like the child-care needs of a geographic area, according to Annette Watters, manager of the Alabama State Data Center at UA’s Center for Business and Economic Research. However, Hurricane Katrina put a crimp in the census statistical system, Watters said, noting that people affected by the storm have moved to temporary quarters throughout the Gulf Coast. Watters said the confusion brings up the question of what it means to “live somewhere. Is it where you are staying for several months -- even a year -- while you are dislocated? Is it where your permanent home is? People have different opinions about the answers to those questions.”

Source: Annette Watters, awatters@cba.ua.edu.