The U.S. military will decrease the number of troops in Iraq by roughly a third in 2006, a University of Alabama foreign policy expert predicts.

“Initially it will be in small increments, but large enough to create a political cover for the Republican Party in the 2006 elections,” says Dr. Donald Snow, professor of political science at UA. “I think there will be about 100,000 troops in Iraq this time next year.”

Snow, who has held visiting professorships at the U.S Air Command and Staff College, U.S. Naval War College, U.S. Army War College and the U.S. Air War College, says the slow turnover of power to Iraqi officials, termed “Iraqification” and similar to the “Vietnamization” of Vietnam, will be the result of what the American public wants. “It’ll be for more political reasons than military reasons,” he adds.

Dr. David Lanoue, chair of the UA political science department agrees. “The Democrats, hampered by their inability to sound a common theme on Iraq, and also outfoxed by a well-publicized midyear withdrawal of several thousand troops from the country, will pick up seats in the midterm elections, but will not do nearly as well as they originally expected,” Lanoue says. “The House and Senate will remain firmly in Republican hands after the election.”

Lanoue also predicts that the withdrawal of troops and the slow economic recovery will help President George W. Bush’s popularity numbers rise. “He will be around 50 percent or slightly higher by the end of 2006.”