Next year’s hurricane season is unlikely to bring much reprieve for coastal residents hammered by the storms in record fashion in 2005, predicts a University of Alabama geography professor.

“We should expect major hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast,” says Dr. David Shankman, a professor of geography who regularly teaches a climatology class at UA. “This will probably be another active hurricane season.”

Pinning the record season, or basing next year’s predictions, solely on global warming, would be a mistake, Shankman said. “That may play a part, but by no means is it the only part,” he said.

The last decade has been an active hurricane period, and elevated sea surface temperatures are a factor in the frequency of hurricanes forming, he said. However, another factor, which came into play last hurricane season, was the lack of powerful, high altitude, “trade winds” which can “slice off” the tops of hurricanes, reducing their strength. “We did not have these powerful winds the last couple of years, and that allowed these storms to be more powerful than would normally occur,” he said.

Other than hurricanes, Alabamians should not expect much extreme weather in 2006, Shankman says. The lack of El Nino or La Nina effects – associated with atypical ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – reduces the likelihood of unusual weather patterns.

“Until we get to hurricane season, it will be a pretty average year, weather wise,” Shankman says. And don’t hold your breath expecting this to finally be the year giant snowmen abound in Alabama.

“I’m predicting no measurable snowfall for Central Alabama for the 2006 winter,” he said.